Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.500478 9.757167 11.111625 12.677029 14.433300 16.339777 18.562745
2026-01-25 6.618378 8.309373 10.274805 12.715946 15.653570 19.061034 23.297952
2026-02-01 5.672745 7.547767 9.835158 12.808290 16.545300 21.059443 26.894423
2026-02-08 4.871581 6.835417 9.338833 12.728294 17.156423 22.699304 30.109746
2026-02-15 4.245861 6.244699 8.893306 12.609172 17.628235 24.104880 33.014640
2026-02-22 3.804078 5.840372 8.634942 12.682794 18.314832 25.780221 36.310462
2026-03-01 3.522340 5.621338 8.594037 13.023959 19.351011 27.937237 40.315236
2026-03-08 3.126201 5.188865 8.204255 12.827308 19.604001 29.016206 42.877902
2026-03-15 2.694643 4.654585 7.613153 12.280190 19.300570 29.277400 44.282407
2026-03-22 2.537194 4.530833 7.621369 12.612336 20.280486 31.382941 48.366869
2026-03-29 2.375241 4.381812 7.573940 12.847275 21.115653 33.302433 52.248855
2026-04-05 2.162569 4.126084 7.334138 12.758360 21.441159 34.471810 55.062940
2026-04-12 1.957862 3.867614 7.074480 12.626793 21.703164 35.574751 57.856402
2026-04-19 1.799534 3.675297 6.908493 12.633648 22.179531 37.019855 61.224497
2026-04-26 1.674623 3.530066 6.808171 12.736643 22.805772 38.709784 65.018561
2026-05-03 1.532455 3.337548 6.608598 12.653170 23.113845 39.903295 68.074876
2026-05-10 1.399864 3.149333 6.400142 12.536003 23.351291 40.982990 70.979056
2026-05-17 1.306408 3.028883 6.304540 12.608782 23.908625 42.593588 74.781567
2026-05-24 1.255291 2.989600 6.356359 12.948364 24.939514 45.015808 79.980557
2026-05-31 1.142959 2.810255 6.126636 12.752662 25.015462 45.846417 82.588904
2026-06-07 1.002469 2.554551 5.726715 12.208372 24.434504 45.536516 83.277654
2026-06-14 0.967676 2.529507 5.783637 12.538805 25.452236 47.990009 88.691026
2026-06-21 0.925129 2.482396 5.791552 12.772542 26.299780 50.176076 93.717210